1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass
Are match outcomes tell the whole story? One must ask. The Villans' triumphant run persisted with a win over Manchester United, but so did the lingering concerns. On paper, they were second best by several measures – a lower shot count (12-15), less possession (43-57), a scarcity of clear opportunities (2-3). Typically, the victory was a slender one. Consistently, the xG metric painted a different picture: according to data United edged it 1.31-1.02. Yet the reality is games are not won by xG. They are won by collective effort, astute coaching and individual talent – and Villa have all three. Villa's emerging star might just be their primary talisman, but his contributions are coming like Father Christmas. The Spanish tactician is wily, seasoned, significantly more advanced of the United boss. The fact Rogers took advantage from a positional error, it was likely because the coach had detected that his opponent was uncomfortable, and told Rogers to start wide, cut in and torment him. Skill and strategy, combining effectively.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
Following United's victory over Brighton 4-2 in late October, their fans rediscovered hope. They had won three league games on the bounce for the initial occasion under the Portuguese coach. They ascended to fourth. And the wins were all good ones – over Brighton (a traditionally tricky opponent), Liverpool (on the road!) and Sunderland (at home, versus a newly-promoted side, but still – a routine shutout). The goalkeeper was reassuring, the attack was exciting and optimism was growing. But then United went back to black. In a run of eight matches, a mere pair of successes, six missed opportunities. At Villa Park they were the better team without ever looking like winning. Yes, Matheus Cunha scored a good goal, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were cursed by absentees (to important midfielders), but they conceded soft goals. After 13 months in England, Amorim still hasn’t worked out how to claim three points.
3. Arsenal Grind Out a Vital Victory
It was a late Saturday start on the Saturday before Christmas but a distinct lack of quality in the final third made for a sobering evening. For Everton, the issue was expected with key attackers absent, and Jack Grealish struggling to lift an entire team on his own. In many respects it is surprising that Everton occupied a European spot in the table two weeks earlier given they have played the whole campaign without a reliable number nine. For Arsenal and Mikel Arteta, while he relished a hard-fought three points and a return to the top of the table, the problem should be just as worrying given their designs on the Premier League. Arteta insisted that positive results will inevitably become bigger with dedication and persistence. But it is somewhat premature in the season for a team that can start with world-class talents, while leaving quality substitutes on the bench, to be relying on grinding out wins.
4. Guardiola’s Festive City Investigations
On Christmas Day the Catalan coach will check the weights to ensure his Manchester City players have not overdone the festive fare. Guardiola said the players asked to enjoy a break after their latest win but he refused because the performance was insufficient. So it's recovery, work for those who didn't feature, and after three days off, then brief training for the Nottingham Forest game. Guardiola detailed how improvements can be made. “I’m good at reading what happens in the game, identifying weaknesses – if the players were in the right areas, we could be more potent.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I'm taking a break with the family to relax. I'll visit Barcelona – I recommend it, the food is excellent.”
5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow
Isak's clinical effort at Tottenham felt, for a fleeting moment, as a turning point. This was precisely the reason Liverpool splashed the cash for him to do, to break tight games with his movement and range of finishing, and the calmness with which he clipped in from an incisive ball looked extremely positive. So the sight of him departing immediately, following a rash challenge, was a major worry for the Liverpool manager and a shame for any neutral who would like to see such a gifted player perform at his best again. It is believed Isak has picked up a serious leg injury and he likely faces a extended spell on the sidelines. It would be a huge loss with Slot’s team having quietly moved into the upper echelons, putting together a string of positive results featuring Isak’s first Premier League goals in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear inextricably linked to those of their record signing.
6. Penalty Debate Rages After Newcastle Draw
Managers often moan about debatable rulings as a means of shifting the focus from matters they wish to avoid discussing. The numerous points Newcastle have squandered when ahead this season is a prime example. Eddie Howe certainly did not seem too willing to mention that unfortunate habit following his side’s collapse from a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they ended up drawing. Yet Newcastle’s manager was surely correct to highlight a decision made by the on-field referee and VAR not to award his team a penalty following a clear obstruction on Anthony Gordon. With the score then 2-1, a 12-yard award could have changed the narrative. Was the decision to offer the Chelsea defender the leeway informed by past incidents for being expert at drawing contact and sometimes exaggerating? Analysis from a respected pundit was interesting. “He sees the challenge coming,” came the observation. “He expects the tackle and he's ready. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the strength of the challenge there … that’s not shielding the ball.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s first away win this season spelled joy for the Bees' boss. More than just enjoying the victory, Andrews sympathised with Wolves, the club he started his career with. “My formative years were here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is increasingly desperate; statistical models state – maybe optimistically – their likelihood of the drop at 99.17%, leaving little tangible to fight for beyond pride. A experienced defender brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
